How to Use Axiom Prediction Markets: Complete Guide 2026

Axiom Trade just launched prediction markets powered by Polymarket, letting you trade real-world events — sports, politics, crypto — directly inside the same terminal you use for Solana trading. This guide walks you through everything: how to access the markets, how to read positions, how to place your first trade, and how to manage open positions.

WHAT ARE AXIOM PREDICTION MARKETS?

Prediction markets let you trade the probability of an event happening. Each outcome is represented as a token priced between 0¢ and 100¢.

If you buy YES on "Spain wins the World Cup" at 16¢ and Spain wins, your position pays out $1. That's a 6.25x return. If Spain doesn't win, the position expires at $0.

The key difference from traditional sports betting: you can exit your position before the event resolves. If Spain's probability rises from 16¢ to 28¢ after winning two group games, you can sell your YES position for a 75% profit without waiting for the final.

Axiom's prediction markets run on Polymarket's infrastructure — the largest on-chain prediction market platform with over $2 billion in 24-hour volume on major markets.

HOW TO ACCESS AXIOM PREDICTION MARKETS

Step 1 — Go to axiom.trade and connect your wallet. If you don't have an Axiom account yet, register with invite code SARIOSOL to get a 10% fee discount on all trades.

Step 2 — In the top navigation, click Predictions. This opens the prediction market interface.

Step 3 — You land on the Trending tab which shows the most active markets by volume.

Use the category tabs to filter:

All — every active market across all categories

Crypto — Bitcoin price predictions, airdrops date, protocol events, exchange outcomes

Sports — World Cup, Counter-Strike, League of Legends, NHL, MLB, MLS, other competitive events

Politics — US Presidential Election 2028, Brazil elections, global political events

Watchlist — markets you've starred for quick access

HOW TO CONVERT SOL TO pUSD FOR PREDICTION MARKETS ON AXIOM

Prediction markets on Axiom use pUSD — Polymarket's dollar-pegged stablecoin. If your wallet only holds SOL, you need to convert before placing your first prediction market trade. Here's how to do it without leaving Axiom.

Step 1 — Open the Swap tab inside Axiom. In the top navigation, find the "Deposit" section then switch to "Convert" tab.

Step 2 — Select SOL as the input token and Polymarket pUSD as the output token. Enter the amount of SOL you want to convert. Axiom shows you the pUSD output before you confirm.

Step 3 — Confirm the swap. The transaction executes on-chain and your funds are now available in your pUSD wallet.

Step 4 — Once you hold pUSD, navigate to the Predictions tab and select any market.

HOW MUCH TO CONVERT?

For your first prediction market trade, converting $20–50 of SOL to pUSD is enough to explore several markets. Keep in mind:

Each YES/NO share costs between 1¢ and 99¢ depending on the current probability. A $10 bet on a 16¢ odds gives you 62 shares — if it wins, that pays out $62.

pUSD is redeemable 1:1 for USDC once your market resolves. There is no slippage or exit fee when you convert back.

If you received the $20 pUSD launch bonus, it is already credited to your prediction markets balance — you don't need to convert anything to use it.

HOW TO READ THE MARKET TABLE

Each market row shows:

Market name — the event and outcome being traded

Chance — current market-implied probability (e.g., 60% = 60¢ per share)

Volume — total USD traded in the last 24 hours

Liquidity — how much capital is available for instant execution without moving the price

Liquidity rewards — Daily rewards for LP providers

Ends — time until market resolution

HOW TO PLACE YOUR FIRST TRADE

Step 1 — Open Axiom Trade. Select a market. Click on any row to open the full market page.

Step 2 — Choose your outcome. Most markets have two or more outcomes. Each shows its current probability price.

Step 3 — Select your position size. Enter how much USDC you want to put in. The interface shows you exactly how many shares you receive and your maximum payout.

Step 4 — Confirm the transaction. Your position is executed on-chain via Polymarket's smart contracts. No order matching delay — execution is instant against the liquidity pool.

Step 5 — Monitor your position in the Watchlist or Open positions tab. You can see your open positions, unrealized P&L, and manage your position.

HOW TO EXIT A POSITION EARLY

You don't have to hold until resolution. At any point before the event ends, you can sell your shares back to the market at the current price.

Example: You buy 100 YES shares on "France wins World Cup" at 16¢ ($16 total). France wins their group and their probability rises to 22¢. You sell your 100 shares at 22¢ for $22 — a $6 profit without waiting for the tournament to end.

This makes prediction markets more similar to trading than to traditional betting. You're taking positions on probability, not just betting on outcomes.

THE $20 pUSD LAUNCH BONUS

As part of the prediction markets launch, Axiom is distributing $20 of pUSD (Polymarket's USD stablecoin used for settling trades) to qualifying active traders.

You need to already be an active Axiom user to qualify. Get started on Axiom: https://axiom.trade/@sariosol

TIPS FOR TRADING PREDICTION MARKETS ON AXIOM

Sort by Liquidity, not Volume. High volume with low liquidity means the market has already moved significantly and spreads may be wide. High liquidity means you can enter and exit large positions without slippage.

Use short timeframes for live events. Switch to 1m or 5m view during live matches or news events to see real-time probability shifts as the market digests new information.

Watch the TXNS to Traders ratio. A high transaction count with few traders means a small number of accounts are very active — either informed money or automated bots. Worth noting before entering.

Set a Watchlist before the event. Star markets you want to trade in advance so you can access them instantly when the event starts moving.

START TRADING

Access Axiom Prediction Markets: axiom.trade/@sariosol

Invite code SARIOSOL — 10% discount on all trades

Launch bonus: $20 pUSD for qualifying active traders